Why Every Leader Should Try a Premortem: Anticipate Problems Before They Happen

When it comes to planning for success—whether in business, leadership, or personal goals—most people focus on best-case scenarios. We set goals, build action plans, and visualize positive outcomes. But what if, instead of asking “What could go right?”, we asked “What could go wrong—and why?”

That’s the idea behind a premortem.

A premortem is a simple yet powerful strategic planning tool used to anticipate potential obstacles before they occur. Unlike a postmortem, which analyzes why something failed after the fact, a premortem imagines that failure has already happened, and then works backward to identify what might have led to it.

It’s not about being negative. It’s about being proactive.

What is a Premortem?

Coined by psychologist Gary Klein, the premortem is used by military strategists, project managers, and forward-thinking leaders to stress-test their plans before implementation. It can be used for product launches, event planning, hiring decisions, team changes, strategic initiatives, and even personal goals.

Here’s how it works:

1. Imagine failure: You and your team assume the project failed spectacularly.

2. Ask why: Each person writes down every reason—realistic or not—they can think of for why it failed.

3. Identify patterns: As a group, you discuss the most common and most concerning issues.

4. Revise the plan: You proactively adjust the plan to reduce the likelihood of those failures.
   

6 Benefits of Doing a Premortem

1. Improves Risk Awareness

Instead of waiting for a problem to surprise you, a premortem brings hidden risks to light. It forces teams to think beyond optimism and address vulnerabilities they may otherwise ignore.

2. Strengthens Decision-Making

By exploring a range of failure scenarios, you’re better equipped to make informed, resilient decisions. You build contingency plans before you need them, reducing panic when challenges arise.

3. Increases Team Psychological Safety

A premortem gives everyone a seat at the table. Team members feel safer sharing concerns when the framework encourages it. This results in better collaboration and more diverse perspectives.

4. Reduces Groupthink

When everyone is focused on achieving success, dissenting opinions are often dismissed. A premortem intentionally disrupts that pattern by asking, “What’s the worst that could happen?”, encouraging critical thinking and honest feedback.

5. Boosts Confidence and Execution

Knowing you've stress-tested your plan gives your team confidence. You’re not just hoping for the best—you’re ready for the worst, which makes execution more focused and less reactive.

6. Saves Time and Money

Identifying potential missteps early can prevent costly delays, resource misallocations, or full-scale project failures. A premortem is an investment in smart prevention, not damage control.

How to Run a Quick Premortem

Whether you’re solo planning or working with a team, here’s a quick format you can follow:

1. State the goal or project plan clearly.

2. Say aloud: “Imagine it’s six months from now. This project failed. What happened?”

3. Give everyone 5–10 minutes to write privately.

4. Share and compile the risks on a whiteboard or shared doc.

5. Discuss and prioritize them.

6. Adjust the plan accordingly.
   

Final Thoughts

Premortems don’t eliminate risk—they help you see it coming. By shifting your mindset from “everything will go fine” to “what could derail us?”, you empower yourself and your team to move forward with clarity, confidence, and agility.

In a world where surprises are inevitable, the most resilient leaders are those who prepare—not just for success, but for setbacks.